The Cubs face a crucial offseason in 2024-25. Before it begins, Cubs writers Tony Andracki and Andy Martínez address 5 key areas of the team — and why you should and shouldn’t be optimistic about them. Next up, the Cubs rotation.

Tony Andracki: The rotation was a clear strength of the Cubs in 2024 (tied for 5th in MLB with a 3.77 rotation ERA) and I see the same scenario playing out in 2025.

For starters (pun very much intended), the Cubs have a pair of co-aces atop the rotation in Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele. Each went to an All-Star Game within the last 2 years and it could be a healthy debate to determine which one draws the Opening Day start (in Japan or in the U.S. opener next year). 

Jameson Taillon is a strong No. 3 and I like the Cubs’ depth and options behind that trio.

[WATCH: Jed Hoyer’s complete end-of-season press conference]

Andy Martínez: The three-headed attack of Imanaga, Steele and Taillon is strong — and arguably up there with any other starting trio in the league, for sure. Javier Assad has proven to be a quality starter (3.45 ERA in 45 starts and 237.1 innings in his career), there’s no denying it. 

But beyond that, there’s definitely some question marks. 

Kyle Hendricks looks to have played his final game as a Cub. His 2024 struggles aside, that’s still 130.2 innings likely leaving the team. And beyond that, there’s no clear in-house option to pick up those outs for the Cubs. 

[WATCH: Jed Hoyer reflects on Kyle Hendricks]

“You’re forgetting about Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks and the rest of the great young pitching the Cubs have!”

I hear ya, and the response is — where was it this year? 

Brown, Wesneski and Wicks combined to make 25 starts this season, posted a 4.21 ERA in 54 games and spent nearly two times as many days on the IL (312, combined, per Spotrac) as innings pitched (169). Horton, meanwhile, pitched 34.1 innings in 9 games before his season ended at Triple-A due to injury. 

They’re young pitchers — volatility and injuries are expected, but you can’t count on one of them to be healthy and cover even the 130 innings that Hendricks provided. And if they are healthy, the Cubs likely might limit their workload; Wicks has never pitched 100 innings in his college or pro career, Brown maxed out at 104 in 2022 and Wesneski threw 130 in 2021, but hasn’t thrown over 100 innings in a year since 2022. 

So where do those innings come from? 

That’s a major question entering this offseason and why there are some concerns for this rotation. The free agency class is littered with quality options — Corbin Burnes pitched under Cubs manager Craig Counsell, in case you hadn’t heard. But that market is always unpredictable. 

And that doesn’t take into account potential hiccups to Imanaga, Steele, Taillon or Assad in 2025. 

Does the league adjust to Imanaga in his second year and with more data out there on him? Do Steele (56 days on the IL in 2024) and Taillon (22 days on the IL) stay healthy throughout the course of the season? Do Assad’s underlying metrics — he had roughly a point higher in FIP (4.64) and xERA (4.97) compared to his actual ERA, 3.73 — catch up to him? 

The depth will be tested in 2025, that’s a guarantee. Right now, it might not be there for the Cubs. 

TA: Health will definitely be a question mark in 2025 for this Cubs rotation, but health is a constant worry for every pitching staff in baseball. Pitching injuries are as prevalent in today’s game as any point in history, so depth is paramount.

While you make salient points, Andy, I think the Cubs are in one of the most enviable positions in the league with their rotation depth entering the offseason.

Steele’s main focus this offseason is on finding a way to stay healthy for a full season and while he was limited in 2024, much of that came due to a freak hamstring injury on Opening Day. He made 30 starts and threw 173.1 innings in 2023.

Taillon was plagued by calf and back issues in spring but once he rejoined the rotation, he was a force. He has made at least 28 starts in each of the last 4 seasons, so he’s a good bet to do so again in 2025.

Imanaga may just be scratching the surface of what he is capable of. There could always be a dip in performance if the league has a full offseason to adjust, but he also drastically cut down on the pitch mix he used in Japan. If he brings some more weapons to the table in 2025, that – combined with a full year of experience in the American game/schedule – could potentially lead to another strong season.

As for the rest of the depth, the Cubs also have Caleb Kilian under contract and will undoubtedly sign other depth options — even just to start the year in Triple-A. 

Assad has seemingly earned a spot in the rotation and when healthy, Brown and Wesneski proved they could start or relieve. Wicks also showed flashes and Horton was one of the top pitching prospects in the entire game before his injury.

At some point, the Cubs will want to give guys like Brown and Horton runway in the rotation to see if they could develop into top tier starters in the big leagues.

The Cubs are beginning the offseason with an already-strong cast of starters. Now imagine if they go out and add a Burnes or a Max Fried to the rotation. They will certainly have the financial flexibility.

You can never predict injuries but I think there is a real possibility — maybe even likely — that the Cubs once again boast an elite rotation in 2025.

Yin and Yang Series:

How do the Cubs build a top-level bullpen in 2025?
Is the Cubs offense in a good spot?
Will the Cubs rotation remain the strength of this team?
Catching is a top priority for the Cubs this offseason
Are the Cubs set up to be a playoff team in 2025?