How Vlad Jr’s $500M Blue Jays contract could impact Cubs’ Kyle Tucker talks
CHICAGO — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. committed the rest of his career to the Toronto Blue Jays late Sunday night.
The 26-year-old superstar first baseman agreed to a 14-year, $500 million contract extension, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported, citing league sources. That deal will have ripple effects on the Chicago Cubs when it comes to their own superstar, right fielder Kyle Tucker, who was named National League Player of the Week on Monday.
Tucker, like Guerrero before his agreement, is scheduled to become a free agent after this season, and they appeared to be the top options in a market that looks thin in superstars. Now Guerrero won’t test the market, leaving Tucker as the clear No. 1 option for teams that need a slugger.
Could the Cubs strike a deal with Tucker before then? Sure, but that seems rather unlikely at this point in the season. Just because Guerrero and the Blue Jays agreed to terms doesn’t mean Tucker and the Cubs will do likewise.
“It was what he wanted to do, and I’m sure he loves playing in Toronto and everything,” Tucker said Monday night before the Cubs opened a three-game home series against the Texas Rangers. “That’s great for him, but everyone’s a little different. Right now, I’m here to play this year and play for the Cubs.
“I’m excited to get out there and play again tonight and just kind of see where everything goes after that.”
Tucker, 28, spent the first 10 years of his professional career with the Houston Astros, winning a World Series in 2022 and blossoming from an 18-year-old first-round draft pick to one of the game’s best hitters. He has spent five months with the Cubs after being traded and still is — in many ways — learning the organization and ballpark.
Of course, money talks, and the Cubs could make Tucker an offer that he can’t refuse, but it would require them to step into unchartered territory. The largest contract the Cubs have handed out is the eight-year, $184 million pact they gave Jason Heyward in 2015, and he was released one year before the end of that deal. Tucker’s next contract surely will be more than double that.
So, what could the framework look like?
The Guerrero deal’s annual average value (AAV) is $35.7 million. Tucker is two years older than Guerrero, so also receiving a 14-year contract might be unlikely — that would be through his age-43 season. So, let’s just assume an 11-year pact for Tucker, for the purposes of this exercise.
Their bats are somewhat comparable: Tucker has a lifetime .877 OPS, a 141 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), 41 percentage points above league average, 130 home runs and 432 RBI. Guerrero carries a career .861 OPS, a 137 wRC+, 160 home runs and 511 RBI.
The difference is in overall value. Tucker has a lifetime 22.2 wins above replacement from FanGraphs (fWAR) in 645 games, Guerrero a 17.0 fWAR in 829 contests. Tucker brings better baserunning and defense that make him a better overall option than Guerrero.
So, let’s put the number at $40 million AAV, just for an easy round number. That would mean the contract would be worth $440 million over 11 seasons. A hefty sum, but clearly the going rate for a player whom Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said is “the kind of player you want to kind of build a lineup around, build a team around.”
Could an offer at those numbers, plus a positive experience within the organization, keep Tucker from hitting the open market? Maybe, but it might not be likely. Guerrero’s deal doesn’t guarantee Tucker will want to rush to sign a new contract.
“It’s been great ever since I’ve been over here,” Tucker said. “Everyone’s been super nice and helpful and everything. Hospitality’s been great. Obviously, you guys can walk around this facility, it’s really nice. I’m just here to play some baseball and see what happens after that.”