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The evolution of Justin Steele: How Cubs ace continues to get even better

3 months agoTony Andracki

Justin Steele had already shown flashes of greatness entering the 2023 season, but he really took off last year with a true breakout campaign.

The southpaw emerged as the Cubs’ ace, notched his first-ever trip to the All-Star Game and was in the National League Cy Young conversation all season, eventually finishing 5th for the award.

Yet like most great players, he wasn’t content. He was always searching for ways to improve and take another step forward.

So Steele came into this season with a dedicated focus on using his full arsenal while also changing the way in which he attacked hitters.

It worked again Monday night as he went 7.1 innings, struck out 9 and pitched well enough to win – yet the Cubs lost 5-4 as the bullpen gave up 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th inning. The Cubs offense walked 7 times and notched 10 hits but scored jut 4 runs as they left 12 on base on the evening.

Steele still hasn’t picked up a win since Sept. 4 last season against the Giants at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are 2-9 in games started by Steele this year, though that’s certainly not a reflection of his performance.

Steele has essentially been a 2-pitch pitcher throughout his career to date – utilizing his 4-seam fastball and slider almost all the time. His fastball takes on unique shapes and looks like several different versions of the same pitch to hitters.

This year, he came into the season wanting to throw his 2-seam/sinker, curveball and changeup more – and he has. It’s not a major increase – he’s still throwing the sinker just 4.8% of the time, the curveball 3.1 % of the time and the changeup 2.7%.

But those are big jumps from last season, when he threw the sinker only 1.8% of the time, the changeup 1% and the curveball 0.6%.

“It was interesting – he went from this guy that we’ve tried to make a 4-pitch guy and he went to basically a 4-seam/cutter and the slider,” Jed Hoyer said last month. “And now he’s like, ‘OK, let’s see if I can diversify a little bit. But do it in the right way where it’s not like all of a sudden going to be throwing 20% changeups or anything like that.

“But I do think realizing, ‘hey, I have to adjust to the league, too.’ … He’s putting stuff in guys’ heads. You don’t want to make mistakes with that pitch and have it burn you but also having those pitches in guys’ heads, that does keep them honest.”

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Steele also has made some alterations to the way in which he pitches – even when he’s still throwing his 4-seam fastball and his slider almost every time.

As a lefty, he often faces an opposing lineup filled with right-handed hitters. And with the way his pitches move, he almost always was working exclusively inside on righties.

That led to a lot of weak contact but it also led to teams making adjustments against him.

So in addition to changing up his repertoire, he came into the year looking to give hitters a different look by working more on the outer half (to righties).

“This is the big leagues and guys are going to make adjustments off you, especially when they’ve seen you multiple times,” Steele said. “I do a lot of inside pitching to righties with my 4-seam and my slider, so teams will start making adjustments.

“They’ll start turning the inside part of the plate into the middle of the plate, they’ll start opening up sooner, they’ll start backing up off the plate to make that the middle of the plate. They’ll do different things to make that a good pitch to them. And that’s when you start using the outside part of the plate – get them leaning back over. It’s that cat-and-mouse game.”

Steele already started seeing the adjustments from his opponents in the middle and latter half of the 2023 season – particularly from in-division teams that have seen him often.

He felt like some teams had a good approach to him and he wanted to adjust back, either with new pitches (like the curveball, changeup or sinker) or by giving hitters a different look by focusing on the outer half of the strike zone.

“It comes from not wanting to lose and you do whatever you gotta do to pitch well,” he said. “When you don’t, you just want to know why.”

Steele has been as good as ever lately with a 1.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last 6 starts. That has brought his season ERA down to 3.08, which is right in line with his mark the past couple seasons – 3.06 ERA in 2023, 3.18 in 2022.

He came into the year feeling great about where he was at, but had his season derailed early with a hamstring injury on Opening Day. When he returned, he struggled initially – despite maintaining that he felt great about where he was at.

Manager Craig Counsell thought Steele had been pitching better than his results.

Those results are starting to come, even though he is still looking for his first win of the season. He will take the ball Monday night in San Francisco as the Cubs open the series against the Giants.

In his first year managing Steele, Counsell has been impressed by the southpaw’s competitive spirit and the way he has tried to stay ahead of the rest of the league.

“What’s fascinating about pitching to me is when a guy is really successful, staying ahead of the league and he feels like, ‘I need adjustments,'” Counsell said last month. “Some pitchers I’ve had before see this coming – knowing that, ‘I gotta stay ahead of the league with what’s next.’

“I think that’s what Justin is trying to do right here. … It’s a great competitor. It’s what a competitive mind says to itself and I think that’s really cool.”

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