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What comes next after Cubs, Kyle Tucker fail to reach deal to avoid arbitration

7 hours agoAndy Martinez

While many questions have surrounded Kyle Tucker’s future with the Cubs beyond 2025, his contract situation for this season is still in the air.

Tucker and the Cubs failed to come to an agreement on terms for the upcoming season before Thursday’s deadline to file salary figures for arbitration eligible players. The Cubs filed at $15 million and Tucker’s camp at $17.5 million. The news was first reported by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

The filing of figures is the next step in the arbitration process and does not mean the two sides cannot come to terms on a deal soon. This just means that if both sides can’t come to an agreement, an independent arbitration panel will hear both cases and decide either in favor of the team or the player. Those usually happen around mid-February and both sides can continue to negotiate up until the hearing.

The Cubs had 4 players arbitration eligible. They came to terms with two — Nate Pearson and Justin Steele. Right-handed reliever Eli Morgan was the last player eligible for arbitration.

This season is Tucker’s final year of arbitration before free agency in 2026.

The Cubs acquired Tucker from Houston last month in a blockbuster trade that sent third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski and infield prospect Cam Smith to the Astros. It was a hefty price for one season of Tucker, but one the Cubs were willing to pay for the outfielder, who they hope can be the game-changing bat their offense has been missing.

[MORE: Cubs add bullpen depth via trade with Rangers]

In his last 4 seasons, Tucker has hit 112 home runs with 360 RBI and slashed .280/.362/.527 (.889 OPS) and accumulated a 19.1 fWAR. Last year, he had a .289/.408/.585 slash line with 23 home runs and 49 RBI and was an All-Star before a fractured shin cost him most of the season.

That type of production meant his willingness to sign a long-term extension was far from a certainty, since he’s so close to free agency and with how the market developed this offseason.

Juan Soto garnered a 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets on the open market. While Tucker probably won’t hit that lofty of a number, his next contract should be eye-popping.

Looking at his production over those last 4 seasons and using FanGraphs’ dollars figure — which converts fWAR into a dollar scale — it amounted to an average of $38.15 million a season. Being conservative and averaging it out to $35 million a season over 9 seasons (his age-37 season) would mean a contract of $315 million.

Not quite three quarters of a billion dollars, but a solid figure, and one that is likely a bit cautious given the unpredictability of free agency where teams can become aggressive in bidding wars.

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