MLB odds: Cubs favorites to win World Series, per Baseball Reference
They have the power and they have the speed to be the best in the ENTIRE league.
Don’t look now, but the Chicago Cubs have the best percentage odds to win the 2025 World Series, per Baseball Reference.
The Cubs sit at 14-10 through 24 games and atop the NL Central as they aim to make their first MLB playoffs appearance since 2020.
You might be wondering how did Baseball Reference come to this summation. Here’s how:
MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team’s estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor.
Over their last 100 games dating to last season, the Cubs are 58-42, good for the sixth-best record in baseball.
This season they have the 10th-best overall record, but they have played the toughest schedule of any team. However, they will play the easiest schedule from here on out. And that includes back-to-back home series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies this week, so the Cubs’ schedule actually will get even easier from April 28 through the rest of the season.
The Cubs boast the league’s best run-scoring offense so far, averaging 6.04 runs per game. They also have the best run differential in the league at +41.
[READ: Why Cubs are more optimistic about offense compared to 2024 start]
Per Baseball Reference’s projections, the Cubs will go roughly 83-55 the remainder of the way, finishing the season 97-65 with the best record in baseball.
While Baseball Reference gives the Cubs the best odds to win the World Series, they have the third-best overall odds to make the playoffs at 93.6 percent, behind only the Detroit Tigers (96.9 percent) and New York Yankees (95.5 percent).
Going down the list of odds from Baseball Reference, they project the Cubs to have a 79.0 percent chance to win the NL Central, an 81.3 percent chance to reach the NLDS, a 47.6 percent chance to reach the NLCS and a 27.4 percent chance to win the NL pennant.
On Circa Sportsbook, the Cubs currently sit at +1000 to win the NL pennant and +1800 to win the World Series.