Cubs swing big in blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker
Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office made their big splash this offseason.
And it’s landed them one of the premier bats in baseball.
A source confirmed to Marquee Sports Network Friday the Cubs completed a blockbuster trade, acquiring outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith. News of the trade was first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
[WATCH: Analyzing the Kyle Tucker trade]
The Cubs announced the deal Friday afternoon.
In Tucker, the Cubs land the type of game-changing bat they’ve been searching for all offseason. Since he established himself as a full-time major leaguer in 2020, Tucker is 10th among all hitters in weighted runs created plus at 143, 43 percentage points above league average. Since 2020, Tucker’s 20.2 fWAR ranks third among all outfielders, behind just Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
[MORE: The ripple effects of Kyle Tucker’s trade to Cubs]
Just how much of a difference would Kyle Tucker make on this Cubs offense?
Well, here’s where he would have ranked on the 2024 Cubs in all major statistical categories:
Home Runs: 23 (2nd)
RBI: 49 (7th)
Stolen Bases: 11 (6th)
AVG: .289 (2nd)
OBP: .408 (1st)
SLG: .585 (1st)
OPS: .993 (1st)
wRC+: 180 (1st)
fWAR: 4.2 (2nd)
All of that is in 78 games.
Tucker was limited in 2024 due to a right shin fracture after fouling a ball off his leg. A full season of a healthy Tucker is exactly the type of player the team sorely missed in 2024, when they won 83 games for the second year in a row and missed the playoffs again.
The Cubs offense has stagnated in May and June in back-to-back seasons, paralyzing their playoff hopes and forcing them to try to play catch up the rest of the way. In 2023, when their cold stretch happened in the early part of the season, it coincided with the injury to Cody Bellinger. That year, Bellinger played at a premium level and seemingly carried the offense at times that year.
[MORE: As trade rumors swirl around Cubs, where does Cody Bellinger fit in?]
“It wasn’t that we didn’t have stars — we didn’t have enough consolidation of wins last year,” Hoyer said at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. “We had a number of players that had good years, but no one had a 5-plus win season that really helped us. I think that’s how I kind of look at it.”
Tucker provides that cover and does it at a first-class rate.
But he doesn’t come without any question marks.
There’s the injury concern from 2024, for sure but the biggest worries might come off the field. Tucker is headed into his final year before free agency, where he’s projected to make around $15 million in arbitration.
The Cubs could try and work out a long-term extension with the 27-year-old, but it’s possible Tucker could want to hit the open market after 2025, especially after the gaudy contract that was handed out to another premier outfield bat, Juan Soto, this offseason.
[READ: A glimpse at the Cubs lineup with Kyle Tucker in the mix]
And the price the Cubs paid to acquire Tucker wasn’t cheap, either.
Paredes, 25, was an elite-level offensive performer in Tampa Bay in 2023. That season, the third baseman posted a 136 wRC+ with 31 home runs, an .840 OPS and a 4.3 fWAR. Paredes also is under team control for 3 more seasons and is projected to make around $6-7 million in arbitration next season.
Paredes struggled in his two months in Chicago, hitting .223 with a .633 OPS and 9 extra-base hits, but had extreme home-road splits. He hit .333 with a .911 OPS on the road, compared to a .105 average/.317 OPS at home.
He was originally signed by the Cubs as a minor league free agent out of Mexico in 2015 before he was traded to the Tigers in the Jeimer Candelario trade in 2017. He was dealt to the Rays in 2022 and broke out in Tampa Bay.
An extreme pull hitter, Paredes should benefit immensely from the change in scenery. Minute Maid Park has the Crawford Boxes in left field, the shortest left field distance in MLB (315 feet). Per Statcast’s expected home runs, Paredes would have hit 26 home runs there, compared to 13 at Wrigley Field and 21 in Tampa Bay.
[How others are grading the Kyle Tucker trade]
The other key piece of the deal comes in 2024 1st-round pick Smith. Smith ended the year in Double-A after rising quickly through the minor-league rungs. In 134 minor league plate appearances across Single-A Myrtle Beach, High-A South Bend and Tennessee, the third baseman slashed .313/.396/.609 (1.004 OPS) with 7 home runs, 24 RBI, 5 doubles and 4 triples.
Smith is the 78th overall prospect in baseball (per MLB Pipeline) and is ranked as the Cubs’ 7th-ranked prospect.
The Cubs have built up a strong pitching depth and that stable of arms allowed them to complete the blockbuster deal for Tucker. Losing Wesneski is a blow, but one the Cubs can stomach if it means a superstar bat comes in return.
Wesneski’s trade to Houston is a bit of a homecoming for the righty. Wesneski went to high school in Cypress, Texas, about 25 miles northwest of Houston, where he grew up an Astros fan. In 190 big-league innings, he’s posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, flashing loads of potential, but also some concerns.
The righty has looked dominant at times. In his first taste of the majors in 2022, he posted a 2.18 ERA in 6 games (33 innings) with 33 strikeouts. But since then, he’s struggled to lock down a role, bouncing between the majors and minors and from reliever to starter.