Caleb Williams was open and honest about his performance against the Seattle Seahawks, where the Bears failed to score a touchdown in a 6-3 loss on Thursday night.

He took too many sacks. He wasn’t always smart with the football. He misfired too often for the Bears to sustain drives and produce the quality required to win.  

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Williams’ assessment just after the game was right. The No. 1 overall pick wasn’t good enough on a team that has lost its run game and was playing without regulars on the offensive line’s left flank.

The traditional and advanced metrics back that up, as you’ll see below. We’ve also added some numbers from NFL NextGen Stats to help paint a clearer picture of the performance in this week’s edition of Counting on Caleb:

Week 16 stat lines

Traditional box score

16-for-28 passing (57.1 comp%), 122 yds, 4.4 ypa, 0 TD, 1 INT, 53.0 passer rating; 5 rushes, 37 yards, 7 sacks, 1 fumble

PFF Metrics

PFF Passing pressure

Kept clean (45.0%): 12-for-16, 76 yds, 4.8 ypa, 0 TD, 0 INT

Under pressure (55.0%): 4-for-12, 46 yds, 3.8 ypa, 0 TD, 1 INT

Not Blitzed (65.0%): 11-for-18, 66 yds, 3.7 ypa, 0 TD, 0 INT

When Blitzed (35.0%): 5-for-10, 56 yds, 5.6 ypa, 0 TD, 1 INT

(full numbers can be found right here)

PFF Passing direction map

NFL NextGen stats

Advanced passing stats vs. Seahawks

16-of-28 passing for 122 yards on 38 dropbacks, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 53.0 passer rating, 57.1 comp%, -6.09 CPOE, -11.0 EPA, -0.29 EPA/DB, 2.83 seconds TTT, 7 sacks, 18 QB pressures, 47.4 QBP% (full numbers can be found right here)

Passing map

Overall evaluation

Bair’s take

We can harp on the negatives in this analysis, but the numbers have already illustrated Williams’ struggles. Let’s take a look at two throws that show Williams’ vast potential. He made an amazing throw to Rome Odzune in the end zone that was negated by penalty.

His two plays on the final drive, a fourth-down pass to DJ Moore and a third-down completion to Odunze show how good he can be. The rookie isn’t as consistent as he needs to be and at times gets in trouble dancing around the backfield while under pressure, only to throw it away, over taking quick and short profits.

Confidence in Williams’ long-term performance and potential should remain high. Anyone who can make throws like this can be developed in a positive way by the right coach or coordinator.

Williams on his Week 17 performance

“There were miscues. There were stupid sacks that I was taking, losing 10, 14 yards, which is frustrating. But I will say that I will definitely take the heat for this one just because some of the situations that I put us in.”

Rookie rankings

Williams is among four rookie quarterbacks making regular starts for their respective teams at this time. Here are their overall stats through 17 weeks:

NOTE: Williams was the only QB to have played at the time of original publication, the stats below will be updated when applicable.

Jayden Daniels (Washington): 301-of-431 passing (69.7 comp%), 3,303 yds, 22 TD, 8 INT, 7.6 ypa, 101.3 passer rating; 128 rushes, 737 yds, 6 TD; 38 sacks, 5 fumbles

Bo Nix (Denver): 306-of-507 passing (64.3 comp%), 3,235 yds, 22 TD, 11 INT, 6.4 ypa, 87.7 passer rating; 78 rushes, 352 yds, 4 TD; 22 sacks, 2 fumbles

Caleb Williams (Bears): 330-for-533 passing (61.9 comp%), 3.393 yds, 19 TD, 6 INT, 6.4 ypa, 87.4 passer rating; 78 rushes for 479 yds; 67 sacks, 9 fumbles

Drake Maye (Patriots)*: 213-of-315 passing (67.6 comp%), 2,159 yds, 14 TD, 10 INT, 6.9 ypa, 88.6 passer rating; 48 rushes, 389 yds, 2 TD; 29 sacks, 8 fumbles

Michael Penix (Falcons)**: 21-of-32 passing (65.6 comp%), 240 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 7.5 ypa, 75.0 passer rating; 4 rushes, 3 yds, 0 TD; 1 sack, 8 fumbles

* Maye assumed the starter’s role in Week 6; ** Penix assumed the starter’s role in Week 16

Williams on what comes next

“I need to find ways just to be consistent and play good football, consistent football when the ball is in my hand and from all the alerts and things like that. And then I think obviously in the expectation of winning, that will always be my expectation is to win as many games as we have. Obviously, that’s not always the case, but that will always be my goal whenever I’m on the field or preparing throughout the week and things like that.”