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Why Cubs think Carson Kelly can be a difference-maker in NL Central quest

6 hours agoAndy Martinez

As the Cubs look to regain control of the NL Central, they’re hoping to limit what’s become a strength of the rest of the division:

The running game.

The Brewers and Reds, specifically, have become two of the fastest — and best — teams on the basepaths. With the Cubs trying to return to the playoffs and recapture their division, limiting where other teams succeed is paramount.

[MORE: Homecoming: Carson Kelly’s Cubs deal produces emotional reaction from the catcher and his family]

In 2024, Milwaukee and Cincinnati ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively, in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric. They ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in stolen bases, too. Earlier this week, MLB Statcast released a new metric — Baserunning Value — that measures the overall combination of stolen bases and extra bases taken by runners. The Brewers were best in baseball in that category (18) and the Reds were 4th (10).

Old school stats or new aged analytics tell the same story: the Brewers and Reds can cause havoc on the bases.

In adding Carson Kelly behind the plate, the Cubs are optimistic they’ve added a player that can curtail those teams’ ability to dash.

Over the last two seasons, Kelly has been one of the better backstops at nabbing would-be baserunners. In 2024, he stymied 26.3% of potential base stealers, nearly 5 percentage points better than league average (21.8%). The year prior, Kelly stopped 26.8%, 7 points better than the league standard (19.5%).

Both seasons coincide with the new rules implemented by MLB — bigger bases and fewer pickoff attempts meant baserunners were able to jaunt a little freer on the basepaths.

A backstop who can limit that is paramount.

“One of the things that was really appealing to us was his defense,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said. “He throws well, which I think is really important in today’s game with base stealing.

“I think in our division, in particular, we have some athletic teams that run in our division so making sure we don’t lose sight of that was important. I think Carson certainly checks those boxes.”

[READ: Sammy Sosa, Cubs issue statements with slugger apology, team invite]

As a catcher, Kelly takes pride in his defense and work with pitchers. It’s one area that those players know they can impact the game in the most. Catchers in today’s game aren’t offensive juggernauts and teams can scrape by with below league average hitting from that spot if it means they’re contributing to game-calling and run prevention.

“That’s the number one job, right?” Kelly said earlier this week when he was introduced to Chicago media. “If we prevent them from scoring and we score one, we win.”

Kelly will be sharing the backstop duties with Miguel Amaya. Amaya’s offensive season has been well-documented — struggled mightily early and ended strongly. But his defensive improvement didn’t garner the attention it probably deserved.

For much of the season, teams were able to run on the Panamanian backstop. Through Aug. 31, Amaya had a caught stealing percentage of just 15% and nabbed 12 baserunners. In September, those numbers jumped to 6 runners caught stealing for a 35% caught stealing percentage.

If Amaya can continue where he left off in September, Kelly’s addition could help really curtail the rest of the division from turning games into track meets.

And Kelly wants to keep improving in that area.

“How do we get in a little bit better position to be able to get the ball out of our hand quicker?” Kelly said. “I’m sure we’ll have a lot of conversations internally when we get to Spring Training.

“How do we shave off tenths, hundredths of a second? That’s what we’re gonna go after.”

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