By the numbers: Stats and standings update from our simulated Cubs season
The Cubs are out to a hot start on the 2020 virtual season.
This past weekend represented the first series loss of the year for the North Siders, who dropped the first two games to the St. Louis Cardinals before salvaging a victory on Sunday.
We’re following the original Cubs season schedule, which means Monday is an off-day and an opportunity to catch up on the standings and statistics from our simulated season.
Check it out:
Schedule to date
March 26 (@ Brewers) – W, 6-5
March 28 (@ Brewers) – L, 2-0
March 29 (@ Brewers) – W, 6-3
March 30 (vs. Pirates) – W, 10-2
March 31 (vs. Pirates) – L, 3-1
April 1 (vs. Pirates) – W, 7-3
April 3 (vs. Diamondbacks) – W, 4-0
April 4 (vs. Diamondbacks) – L, 5-3
April 5 (vs. Diamondbacks) – W, 4-1
April 6 (@ Pirates) – W, 19-3
April 7 (@ Pirates) – W, 4-1
April 8 (@ Pirates) – W, 4-2
April 9 (@ Pirates) – W, 6-0
April 10 (vs. Cardinals) – L, 5-1
April 11 (vs. Cardinals) – L, 6-4
April 12 (vs. Cardinals) – W, 6-1
Following their brief homestand, the Cubs hit the road to take on the Orioles in Baltimore Tuesday and Wednesday. From there, they head to Washington for a four-game set with the Nationals.
Every day the Cubs were scheduled to have a game, we’ll air the simulated contest on our Facebook page at 1 p.m. After each game ends, we will have a recap and highlights video online.
Standings
The Cubs are in sole possession of 1st place in the NL Central with an 11-5 record.
Even after dropping their first series of the season over the weekend to the last place Cardinals (3-13), the Cubs still have a 2.5-game lead over the Reds and Brewers, who have identical 8-7 records.
The Cubs have a +44 run differential, easily the best mark in the division. The Reds are the only other team with a positive run differential and they’re at just +8. The Pirates are somehow 7-9 despite a -29 run differential.
The main reason for the Cubs’ success has been their incredible pitching staff that has gotten out to a 2.33 ERA through the first 16 games. The North Siders have surrendered only 37 runs on the season, 23 fewer tallies than the next closest divisional opponent (Brewers – 60).
The next closest team in Major League Baseball in ERA is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have a 2.65 mark.
Lineup
Against right-handed pitchers, this is how we’ve rolled out the standard lineup:
1. Kris Bryant – 3B
2. Anthony Rizzo – 1B
3. Javy Báez – SS
4. Kyle Schwarber – LF
5. Willson Contreras – C
6. Jason Heyward – RF
7. Ian Happ – CF
8. Jason Kipnis – 2B
That changes against lefties, as Steven Souza Jr. comes in to play one of the corner outfield spots, David Bote subs in at second base and Albert Almora Jr. typically plays center field.
We also will continue to work in Victor Caratini at catcher to give Contreras regular rest and when players are struggling or other players are hot, we’ll adjust the lineup accordingly. For example, while Kipnis was in a rut at the plate, we inserted Bote at second base against righties for a couple games, but Kipnis bounced back in a strong way (as you can see below).
Nico Hoerner is in the minor leagues, playing second base for Triple-A Iowa everyday. We’ll provide an update on him next week.
Season slash lines
Bryant – .262/.315/.446
Rizzo – .200/.279/.350
Báez – .317/.397/.517
Schwarber – .246/.313/.574
Contreras – .226/.281/.472
Heyward – .294/.339/.627
Happ – .213/.302/.447
Kipnis – .226/.368/.645
Bote – .160/.323/.320
Souza – .500/.636/1.375
Caratini – .333/.429/.417
Almora – .000/.250/.000
Pérez – .000/.000/.000
OPS leaders
Souza – 2.011
Kipnis – 1.014
Heyward – .967
Báez – .914
Schwarber – .887
Caratini – .845
Bryant – .761
Contreras – .752
Happ – .749
Bote – .643
Rizzo – .629
Almora – .250
Pérez – .000
HRs
Schwarber – 5
Heyward – 5
Bryant – 3
Báez – 3
Contreras – 3
Kipnis – 3
Rizzo – 2
Happ – 2
Souza – 2
Bote – 1
RBI
Bryant – 13
Schwarber – 13
Heyward – 10
Contreras – 9
Happ – 8
Rizzo – 7
Báez – 7
Kipnis – 4
Bote – 4
Souza – 4
Caratini – 1
Rs
Heyward – 12
Bryant – 10
Schwarber – 10
Contreras – 9
Báez – 8
Rizzo – 7
Happ – 7
Bote – 6
Kipnis – 4
Souza – 4
Caratini – 1
Almora – 1
Hits
Báez – 19
Bryant – 17
Schwarber – 15
Heyward – 15
Rizzo – 12
Contreras – 12
Happ – 10
Kipnis – 7
Bote – 4
Caratini – 4
Souza – 4
SBs
Báez – 2
Bryant – 1
Notes
— Schwarber and Heyward are tied with Adam Eaton for 3rd in the NL in homers, behind only a pair of Rockies sluggers (Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story).
— Báez surprisingly leads the team in walks (tied with Kipnis with 7).
— Schwarber has a whopping 28 strikeouts through 16 games (against only 6 walks), but he’s done some serious damage when he’s put the bat on the ball.
—Souza is the only Cubs player with more walks (3) than whiffs (2).
—Kipnis still isn’t hitting for a high average, but almost everything he’s hitting is going for extra bases and he’s been the team’s most patient hitter.
—It’s nice the Cubs have gotten solid contributions from their role players (Kipnis, Souza, Caratini, Bote) and Heyward’s hot start is a welcome sight for fans, but it’s pretty incredible they’re in 1st place by a wide margin when Bryant (.761 OPS) and Rizzo (.629 OPS) are struggling the way they are. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but a .315 OBP from your leadoff hitter and a .279 mark from your No. 2 hitter isn’t typically a key to success.
—Rizzo’s simulated slow start follows his real-life patterns, as his career batting average in March and April (.241) is more than 30 points below what it is in any other month (.273 in July and September).
Rotation
Kyle Hendricks – 3-0, 1.65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Yu Darvish – 1-1, 1.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Jon Lester – 1-1, 2.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Jose Quintana – 2-0, 2.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP
Tyler Chatwood – 1-1, 1.88 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Notes
— Virtual Hendricks has turned in a quality start in each of his 4 outings. Quintana and Lester are both 3-for-3 in quality starts while Darvish has a pair of quality outings in 3 starts. Tyler Chatwood has yet to turn in a quality start, as he’s averaging less than 5 innings per outing.
— Quintana is the only pitcher with a complete game and a shutout, having done so last week. Imagine how huge it would be for the Cubs in real life if – whenever baseball begins again – Quintana starts out with a 2.14 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in his first 3 starts.
— The Cubs have 3 of the Top 15 pitchers in the National League in ERA: Darvish (8th), Hendricks (10th), Quintana (14th).
— Quintana is 4th in the NL in WHIP.
Bullpen
The Cubs bullpen remains a strong point in the early going, even after a tough weekend against the Cardinals.
RP stats
Craig Kimbrel – 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP
Rowan Wick – 0.00 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Kyle Ryan – 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Jeremy Jeffress – 0-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Dan Winkler – 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Alec Mills – 3-0, 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Brad Wieck – 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP
Trevor Megill – 9.64 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Holds leaders:
Winkler – 6
Ryan – 3
Wick – 2
Jeffress – 1
Notes
— Mills is tied for the team lead with 3 wins out of the bullpen.
— Craig Kimbrel is 5-for-5 in save opportunities.
— Wieck was called up a week into the season and has 7 Ks in 3 innings.
— Veteran newcomers Winkler and Jeffress have been a big addition to the bullpen thus far, helping to take the pressure off Ryan and Wick as they set the table for Kimbrel. That’s exactly how the Cubs hoped the situation would play out when they took a volume game approach to the bullpen over the winter.
Around the league
— The Cubs rank 25th in MLB with a .240 AVG. They’re tied for 2nd with 29 homers and have been taking an all-or-nothing offensive approach to the season in the early going.
— Just like last season, when the Cubs had the worst contact percentage in baseball, the 2020 virtual team has the second-most strikeouts in the league (170). The Cubs also rank only 21st in baseball with a .320 OBP, which will portend issues if the pitching falls back to Earth (which should happen even in simulated baseball, as a 2.33 team ERA is unsustainable).
For the virtual Cubs to continue their winning ways, they’ll need to increase the offensive production and that starts with making more contact and drawing more walks.
Who knows what kind of ball MLB The Show 20 is utilizing, but if it’s anything like the one MLB utilized in 2019, the home-run hitting ways might continue at the same pace.
Andy Martinez contributed to this article.